Arkansas Derby, Saturday April 16th

Well here we are with the final week of the Pick 6 Challenge, and the finally weekend of the Derby Prep Races.  We have two races left for Derby hopefuls to get in, with the Lexington at Keeneland, and the Arkansas derby at Oaklawn Park.  Thanks to some poor horse selection last week, the top positions in the 2016 Kentucky Derby Challenge are up for grabs.  Cornelio will take you through this weekend’s races, hopefully not giving anyone too much of an advantage to take the title from him.

Race 1: Ben Ali Stakes

  • Eagle – probably will end up the favorite, two huge 100+ beyers last times out, 2 for 2 at Keeneland, but only went distance once, working out well, lifetime 12 5-3-2
  • Neck ‘n Neck – Hasn’t finished worse than 3rd in last 6 starts, knows the track having raced there 4 times, working out well, has gone the distance 6 times, but with poor results
  • General a Rod – Pletcher trained with hot jockey Saez on top, 1 win in 1 start at Keeneland, has shown the speed in the past, and has gone the distance or longer before, might do better at the shorter distance

Race 2: Giant’s Causeway Stakes

  • Jewel of a Cat – consistently near the 90’s speed wise, whopping 21 races at distance winning close to a quarter of them, working well, coming off 3 3rd places, hope to improve to first.
  • Miss Ella – stakes experience, but only once at distance, working well, and three straight 90+ beyers, Graham motion winning at 20%
  • Miss Matzoball – Coming off 2 wins at 5f, 3 2-0-0 at distance, Javier Castellano is a hot jockey, doesn’t have the stakes experience though

Race 3: Lexington Stakes

  • Swipe – high 90’s beyers, and finished 2nd to Nyquist 4 times!, bit of a wild card having not raced yet this year
  • Collected – blistering 102 last time out, high percentage jockey, winner of 3 of last 5, has gone the distance, working well
  • Riker – has the graded stakes experience, might not have what it takes to get to the Derby, disappointing in the Tampa Derby, but could come through this time?

Race 4: Jenny Wily Stakes

  • Tepin – been doing quite well since upset at Saratoga in the Balston Spa, consistent 100 beyers, 4 wins in a row, 3 2-1-0 at distance, winner of 7 of last 9, Leparoux a plus on the turf for me, he knows this horse.
  • Miss temple City – high 90’s beyers, graded stakes experience, coming off a second place, 2 for 2 at distance, Graham Motion at 20% winning percentage
  • Dacita – beat Tepin in Saratoga, hasn’t done much since, gets Castellano on top, also 2 for 2 at distance, finished second by a neck last time, can she catch Tepin again?

Race 5: Oaklawn Handicap

  • Effinex – working bullets, fast horse, only 1 race this year is a concern, stakes experience, 5 2-1-0 at distance, should be a great race
  • Blofeld – winner of the Gulfstream Park handicap, won last race with a 108, hasn’t gone the distance, 7 4-0-1 lifetime
  • Melatonin – coming off two 100+ beyers, won the last 2 races, hasn’t gone distance, beat Effinex last time outracing well over the last year

Race 6: Arkansas Derby

  • Cupid – winner of the Rebel, and last 2 starts, has beaten others in the field today, Baffert and Garcia are a high percentage combo
  • Suddenbreakingnews – poor race in the Rebel, working out well, one win at Oaklawn, we will find out if last race was his peak, or if there is more in the tank
  • Whitmore – coming off two second place finishes, working out well, wondering if he has enough to beat the others today
  • Just Missed – Gettysburg, coming off a big 100 beyer, but finished second, watch out for Johnny V if he is hot, 1 win in 2 starts at distance

Good luck everybody, have a good weekend, and bet happy.

One Comment

  1. CornelioAuthor April 22, 2016 Reply

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