We’ve got six stakes races for you this weekend headlined by the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, the only Derby points race of the weekend. But don’t let that fool you into thinking this is some minor stakes race. Past winners of the Rebel Stakes include Smarty Jones, Lookin At Lucky, Curlin, and American Pharoah. That’s a lot of talent. Could one of this weeks entries be the next big winner? We will see. Races are up, here is your race by race analysis.

Race 1: Azeri Stakes (G2)

• Letruska – Has shown consistent speed, winner of 3 of last 4, 3 for 3 at distance, and 1 win at Oaklawn, working bullets, looking good.
• Envoutante – winner of last 2, has the pace as well, winner of 3 of 4 at distance.
• Shedaresthedevil – I made her my 3rd pick because she hasn’t raced since October, and hasn’t cracked 90 beyer other than the last 2 races. Were they a fluke, or a sign of things to come? She is working out well, and has a high percentage jockey / trainer combo. Could end up your winner, but the layoff concerns me.

Race 2: Essex Handicap

• Night Ops – last years winner, experience at the track, won 5/10 at distance, working bullets, a bit inconsistent, but all the horses this race have a fault.
• Tax – also a bit of up and down with this horse, lightly raced in 2020, not a factor in Pegasus World Cup, working well though, and 2/2 wins at distance. I see a return to form here.
• Silver Slate – coming off 3 wins, definitely moving up in class though, moving up in distance too, high trainer and jockey percentage, I’m going to give him a chance.
• Harpers First Ride – throw out that last race and this horse looks like your winner, not sure what happened last time out, changed trainers too, should I be concerned? Doesn’t have the stakes experience of others, mediocre workouts. Might be worth a dollar win at high odds.

Race 3: Hot Springs Stakes

• Whitmore – well raced and has hit the board in all 14 starts at Oaklawn. Won half of all races at distance and 9/14 at Oaklawn. Last years BC Sprint winner. Working out great, high percentage jockey and trainer, dropping in class, speed is there. Lots to like, low price.
• C Z Rocket – I give the edge to Whitmore with his experience at Oaklawn. C Z Rocket has never won here, workouts are mediocre, the experience is here though, winner of last 5 before a second to Whitmore. Revenge race?
• Flagstaff – Wins haven’t been there lately, 2nd to C Z Rocket last year, working out well though, not as good a choice as the two above.

Race 4: Rebel Stakes (G2)

• Caddo River – winner of last 2, high percentage jockey and trainer, working out great, a win at Oaklawn last time out, hasn’t gone the distance though.
• Concert Tour – undefeated and super fast beyers. Hasn’t raced the distance though, and only 2 races experience. Working bullets though, not going to under estimate Rosario and Baffert.
• Keepmeinmind – love the fact that he has gone the race distance 3 times going 1-1-1. High percentage trainer, winner of last race, great race experience so far (JC, BCJuevenile, BCFuturity).

Race 5: San Simeon Stakes (G3)

• Jolie Olimpica – Speed is there, never finished worse than second, graded stakes winner, high percentage jockey and trainer, working out bullets, lots to like.
• Cistron – big knock is having not raced since May of last year. High percentage jockey and trainer, graded stakes experience, working out well, lots of experience at Santa Anita, should definitely be a factor.
• Bob and Jackie – Giving the edge over Gregorian Chant based on graded stakes experience, but this could be a toss up. Dropping to a shorter distance, high percentage trainer.
• Others – Gregorian Chant – working bullets, winner last time out at distance, and shorter than raced before, high percentage trainer and jockey, may have talked myself into this one.

Race 6: Beholder Mile Stakes (G1)

• Swiss Skydiver – back after an awful BC Distaff, working out well, familiar jockey, expecting a return to form here.
• As Time Goes By – looks like Mike Smith jumped here from harvest Moon, winner of last 2, win at distance, hot jockey and trainer, working out well, should challenge.
• Harvest Moon – winner of 4 before fourth place finish in the BCDistaff. Good workouts, dropping in distance, good speed, high percentage jockey, 3/3 at distance, lots to like here for sure.

Another great day of racing, good luck to everyone. Play the Pick 6 Challenge: http://games.scaredycatfilms.com/pick6/