Rebel Stakes, February 26, 2022

Taylor Rice Saratoga

We are hitting a lot of tracks this weekend, a total of 5 different tracks. We kick it off with the Royal Delta at Gulfstream, hit the feature in Race 5 with the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, and then wrap up the evening with the Wintergreen Stakes at Turfway Park. Let’s get a look at these fields.

Race 1: Royal Delta Stakes (G3)

  • Letruska – Looking to move past an awful Breeders Cup race, on paper this is your winner, if she can return to form. Winner of 5/6 at distance, winner 7 of last 9 races, 3/3 at Gulfstream Park, high percentage jockey, working bullets.
  • Crazy Beautiful – Graded stakes experience, winner of 4/6 at distance, winner at Gulfstream, hit the board in 4 of last 5 races, has come up short in Grade 1 races.
  • Il Malocchio – Dropping in distance, moving up in class, has won at distance with a decent speed fig 2 races ago, just doesn’t seem to be a match for the top two though.

Race 2: Honeybee Stakes (G3)

  • Yuugiri – Two seconds and a third in 3 career starts, second in 2 races at distance, good speed figs, bested Secret Oath in G2 Golden Rod, high percentage jockey, working out well.
  • Secret Oath – Winner of 2/3 at distance, winner of 2/2 at Oaklawn Park, similar speed to Yuugiri, winner of last 2 races and 3/5 lifetime, working out well, 5th in Golden Rod though.
  • Free Like a Girl – Most experience in field, winner of 6/11 lifetime, has never gone the route distance, winner 4 of last 5 races, moving up in class, working bullets, will need to get the lead and hang on.

Race 3: Stymie Stakes

  • Green Light Go – Huge speed last race in Optional Claimer, working bullets, seems to like Aqueduct race track, seems to like being trained by Jerkens.
  • Waxman – Steadily increasing speed figs, winner last 2 races and 5 2-3-0 lifetime, high percentage trainer, moving up in class, has won last 2 races at Aqueduct, working out well, dropping distance.
  • Pirates Punch – Winner at distance, dropping in class, high percentage trainer, working out well. I think the drop in class and shorter distance work in his favor today.

Race 4: Big Drama Stakes

  • Vodka Gimlet – Bested Iron Mike last race, winner at distance, winner 2/3 at Delta Downs, working out well, winner last race, no advantage over Iron Mike with Jockey or trainer, same stats.
  • Brian’s Iron Mike – Delta Downs races, 5 3-1-1 at track, winner of 3 before second to Vodka last race, working bullets, rail post advantage.
  • Simply Wicked – More consistent speed figs, high percentage trainer, winner 2 of last 3 including last race, lots of experience at Delta Downs, moving up in distance and class.

Race 5: Rebel Stakes (G2)

  • Newgrange – Highest speed figs, undefeated in3 starts, win at distance, 2 Grade 3 wins, high percentage jockey and trainer, working bullets, winner at Oaklawn last race, what is not to like?
  • Barber Road – Second last 3 races but first in two races before that, close in speed figs, but second to Newgrange last race. High percentage jockey and trainer, working out well, needs a good trip.
  • Dash Attack – Bested last race, but beat Barber Road in the Smarty Jones. Two wins at Oaklawn, working bullets, maybe the Southwest was the outlier and a return to form puts Dash Attack back on top? Will Cohen make his move earlier?
  • Just Missed – Chasing Time – Winner last race by 7 3/4, facing a tougher field, won’t be the favorite this race, working out OK, gets sixth different jockey.

Race 6: Wintergreen Stakes

  • Breeze Rider – High speed figs, winner last race, winner on all weather track, dropping distance, working out well, winner 5 of last 7.
  • Alydiva – Winner last two races at Turfway all weather, speed seems slower, but experience goes a long way, workouts adequate.
  • Josie – Poor race last time out, but posted two 90+ speed figs before that. Maybe new trainer brings return to form? Winner at distance, hasn’t raced all weather, bullet workout in February, big questions in the Wintergreen…

Should be an interesting day of races, see if you can best my picks in the Pick 6 Challenge:

http://games.scaredycatfilms.com/pick6/index.php


One response to “Rebel Stakes, February 26, 2022”

  1. How did we do?

    Race 1: Royal Delta Stakes (G3)
    Letruska – 1
    Crazy Beautiful – 4
    Il Malocchio – 3

    Race 2: Honeybee Stakes (G3)
    Yuugiri – 3
    Secret Oath – 1
    Free Like a Girl – 4

    Race 3: Stymie Stakes
    Green Light Go – 1
    Waxman – 5
    Pirates Punch – 4

    Race 4: Big Drama Stakes
    Vodka Gimlet – 1
    Brian’s Iron Mike – 7
    Simply Wicked – 5

    Race 5: Rebel Stakes (G2)
    Newgrange – 6
    Barber Road – 3
    Dash Attack – 7
    Just Missed – Chasing Time – 5

    Race 6: Wintergreen Stakes
    Breeze Rider – 1
    Alydiva – 2
    Josie – 4

    Should have singled Letruska. Should have put money on Un Ojo, was my 16th pick.