Kentucky Derby, Saturday May 7th

Well here we are, we finally made it to Derby Day, where the best 3 year olds square off to see who can take home the first leg of the Triple Crown.  We’ve got six races to review from Churchill Downs.  It will be a true Pick 6, as I selected races 7-12 on the day, I left out the Distaff, as I think Tepin will have that one wrapped up.  Be sure to head over to the Pick 6 Challenge and make your picks this week, it is the first week of the 2016 Triple Crown Segment.  Without further ado, Cornelio will make his recommendations on the day.

Race 1: Churchill Downs Stakes

  • Salutos Amigos – highest speed ratings, winner of his last 2, 8 3-0-1 at distance, I like that this horse can go the distance and has beaten some in this field before
  • Kobe’s Back – I totally wrote off this horse when he was stinking up the joint in 2015, but 2016 has brought a complete turnaround, 9 3-2-1 at distance, winner of his last 2, Gary Stevens appears to finally have this horse figured out
  • Calculator – has played second to Salutos and Kobe last two races, has the speed to compete, can go the distance 4 1-2-1, might not have the speed to compete.
  • Just Missed – Speightster, undefeated in 3 starts, working out well, maiden win at distance, could make it interesting, or be a dud.

Race 2: Humana Distaff Stakes

  • Stonetastic – fast speed, working out well, 5 1-1-0 at distance, winner of last 2, I like the way this horse runs
  • Taris – running a shorter distance, 4 2-1-1, switches to Flavien Prat from Gary Stevens, has hit the board in last 9 race, 5 wins
  • Wavell Avenue – Breeders Cup winner, 3 1-0-1 at distance, has beaten both Taris and Stonetastic before, 3rd in only start this year, a little shy with only 1 start this year

Race 3: American Turf Stakes

  • Airoforce – put up 2 stinkers, but was almost unbeatable in 2015, which horse will we get? worked bullet last time out, 1 for 1 at distance, hoping for a comeback
  • Azar, coming off a second and a win, has gone the distance 3 1-2-0, speed is there, Pletcher Velazquez combo
  • Shakimat – lifetime 4 3-0-1 including 2 1-0-1 at distance, coming off 2 wins and working well
  • Just Missed – Beach Patrol – moves up in class, only gone the distance once for second place, coming off 2 wins, working well, don’t count him out

Race 4: Pat Day Mile Stakes

  • Sharp Azteca – coming off 2 wins at distance, familiar jockey, 4 2-1-0  lifetime, working out well
  • Forevamo – Unlce Mo children may have a field day today, 2-1-1-0 at distance, 3-0-2-0 this year, has raced Churchill before
  • Cocked and Loaded – dropping to a shorter distance, working well, talented jockey, and a win at Churchill
  • Just Missed – American Freedom, not afraid of a horse with 1 start for a win working bullets, Baffert / Castellano makes me like him even more

Race 5: Turf Classic

  • Big Blue Kitten – crazy fast speed, Bravo knows this horse, 5 2-2-1 at distance, hasn’t raced in 2016 yet, ????
  • Slumber – a couple of seconds to Big Blue Kitten, has the speed though, expect to see him neck and neck with the Kitten
  • Chocolate Ride – seemed unstoppable for much of last year, failed as favorite last race, 7 4-0-1 at distance, hoping Javier Castellano can turn this horse around the right way
  • Just Missed – keep an eye out for World Approval, Bolo, and Grand Tito, tough race!

Race 6: The Kentucky Derby

  • Nyquist – hard to argue with the body of work he has put together, 7 starts, 7 wins, the favorite, toughest test coming up
  • Exaggerator – fastest horse last race out, peaking at the right time? look at all those 100+ beyers… might depend on what kinda trip he can get
  • Gun Runner – 4 wins in 5 starts lifetime including La Derby and Risen Star
  • Just Missed – Outwork, might be the best of the Uncle Mo horses, other than Nyquist, consistent runner, all depends on the trip

Well, there are a lot of horses to like in the derby, and some great value there too.  So many to chose from, I’ll probably blow all my money in my account chasing the exacta or trifecta.  Gonna be a great racing weekend, good luck everyone!

One Comment

  1. CornelioAuthor May 13, 2016 Reply

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