It is the last weekend of the 2021 Derby Prep Challenge and things are close at the top of the standings. Things are also close in the money category so lots to be decided today. We’ve got the last two Derby Prep races on the calendar today, the Lexington Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. Don’t let the fact that the Kentucky Derby is just 3 weeks away fool you, previous winners of the Arkansas Derby include Smarty Jones (04), Afleet Alex (06), Curlin (07), Bodemeister (12), and American Pharoah (14). Let’s see who will win this year.

Race 1: Giant’s Causeway Stakes

• Elle Z – has gotten the best of Into Mystic in two of her last 3 starts, consistent beyers in the 90s, winner of 3 of last 4 races, winner of 3/6 at distance and 1/1 at Keeneland.
• Into Mystic – failed as favorite last race, but has the speed needed and has finished first or second in all 3 races since a poor showing in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint. High percentage jockey, turf experience, and has hit the board in 13/18 starts.
• Jakarta – has been beaten by the above in most competing starts, I don’t see much to indicate she will improve today, I don’t see much from the other starters either, could really be a 2 horse race. High percentage jockey, experience at distance are working in her favor.

Race 2: Lexington Stakes (G3)

• Proxy – disappointing in the Louisiana Derby, battling much weaker company today, high percentage jockey, wins at distance, bullet workouts, best speed amongst starters.
• Swiftsure – only two races, but both wins, gets an experienced jockey and will be stretching out to a longer distance, son of Uncle Mo, well bet in both starts and moving up in class for sure.
• Starrininmydreams – working bullets, high percentage jockey, high percentage trainer, experience at distance, may do better against weaker foes.

Race 3: Oaklawn Mile Stakes

• Rushie – one of many coming off a long layoff, working out well, best speed figures, experience at distance and a win at track, looks ready.
• Wells Bayou – another coming off a long layoff, 3rd last race, high percentage jockey and trainer, dropping in distance, good workouts.
• By My Standards – coming off a long layoff, fast speed figs, dropping in distance and class today, good workouts.

Race 4: Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1)

• Micheline – winner last race and in 2 of last 3, hot jockey, experience at distance, rail post, bullet workouts.
• Etoile – finally got that win after 3 stakes starts in America, working out well, failed as favorite in 2 of last 3.
• Tamahere – working out well, won two of last 3, high percentage jockey, going to assume Chad Brown knows what he is doing with his two shippers.
• Just Missed – Juliet Foxtrot – speed looks to be there, but results have been lacking. Decided to go with two younger horses with potential, watch Brad Cox prove me wrong.

Race 5: Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3)

• C Z Rocket – Got the best of Whitmore last time out, speed is there, working well, high percentage jockey, wins at distance and wins with Geroux.
• Whitmore – the ageless one returns to battle C Z Rocket, high percentage jockey, winner at distance and track, working out well, should be a great battle.
• No Parole – winner of 3/4 at distance, appears to have not liken the turf last race, returns to dirt, working out well, may try to wire the field.

Race 6: Arkansas Derby (G1)

• Concert Tour – best on paper, undefeated in 3 starts, best speed, high percentage trainer, could end up being favorite for the Kentucky Derby, even odds, no money here.
• Hozier – the other Baffert entry, second to COnvert Tour in the Rebel, working out well, could be a “popular” Baffert Exacta.
• Caddo River – empty in the Rebel, but will Geroux ride a better race this time out? High percentage jockey and trainer, winner of last 2 before debacle in the Rebel, working out well, may not be up to the distance, Super Stock maybe?

There you have it. I’m always a little more excited for the days racing after these writeups. Play the Pick 6 Challenge and see if you can handicap better than me! http://games.scaredycatfilms.com/pick6/