Just before the start of the Kentucky Derby I said “I should probably put a win bet on Johnny Velazquez on Medina Spirit, he has a chance at messing up my bets.”. Did I? No. Let’s hope this week I bet the right horses. We’ve got 5 races from Belmont Park, and then head out West to Santa Anita for the Santa Barbara Stakes, good luck everyone.

Race 1: Runhappy Stakes (G3)

• Chateau – looks to have the speed in this race, experience at distance, dropping back to 6f, winner of 2 of last 3, winless at Belmont though.
• Firenze Fire – I thought this horse was too old, but maybe this small field suites it. Avg speed close to what is needed to win, high percentage jockey, has won half of races entered at this distance, also dropping back to 6f, working out well, and winner of 5/8 at Belmont.
• Stan the Man – Also dropping back to 6f, switching to high percentage jockey, working out well, experience at distance, but lots of second places, rail post is winning at 34%!

Race 2: Beaugay Stakes (G3)

• Harvey’s Lil Goil – I underestimated this horse a while ago, and I won’t do it again. 3rd in BC, high percentage trainer, running fast, return to shorter distance, working out well.
• Civil Union – Winner of 4 before 5th in BC, beaten by Harvey, high percentage jockey, working out well, winner of 3/3 at Belmont and more than half of Turf entries lifetime.
• Lemista – Foreign runners are hard to read in the programs, but this horse had 4 wins before it’s most recent 10th place finish. Hasn’t raced yet in 2021, gets a high percentage jockey/trainer combo, decent workouts.

Race 3: Vagrancy Handicap (G3)

• Honor Way – Well beaten even with slow fractions last time out, gets a shorter distance this time out. High percentage jockey, hit the board in 9 out of last 10 starts, winner of last 2 races in 2020, both over Pacific Gale, speed looks to be there, winner of 4/8 at distance.
• French Empire – Definitely moving up in class, winner of last 4, hot trainer, has shown speed lately, could surprise?
• Pacific Gale – Hasn’t cracked the 100 beyer lately, winner of last 2, including 1 at distance, can’t read much from workouts, beaten several times by Honor Way.
• Just Missed – Victim of Love – gets high percentage jockey, has wins at distance, won at Belmont, working out well, speed looks good, watch out if Rosario looks to be on a roll.

Race 4: Peter Pan Stakes (G3)

Risk Taking looks to scratch and head to the Preakness Stakes next week.

• Nova Rags – Came up short in the Florida Derby, high percentage trainer, keeps jockey, working out very well, had a nice break.
• Promise Keeper – Winner last race at distance, fast speed, but moving up in class from last start.
• Wolfie’s Dynaghost – Wanted to rank higher, winner of last race, at long odds, would like to see more history to see if he is the real thing. With a name like that though…

Race 5: Man o’War Stakes (G1)

• Gufo – Hit the board and 5 wins in all 8 starts, stretching distance, working bullets, consistent speed figs, high percentage jockey/trainer. Lots to like here.
• Sovereign – Results are lacking, but this foreign horse seems to be a long range specialist, and I am not going to doubt a Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz entry today.
• Ziyad – Another foreign raced horse with lots of long distance experience, speed looks to be there, has hit the board recently, graded stakes experience.

Race 6: Santa Barbara Stakes (G3)

• Tapwater – Lots of speed, working out well, high percentage jockey / trainer, returns to winning jockey, experience and wins at track, stretching out distance though.
• Go Big Blue Nation – Has run longer distances and won at Santa Anita. High percentage jockey, won last race, moves up in class.
• Rideforthecause – Some experience at distances over 1 mile, Santa Anita results aren’t there yet.

Smaller fields this week, but tough to handicap for sure. I think I’ll need all my picks to win this week. Good luck everyone, play the Pick 6 Challenge.

http://games.scaredycatfilms.com/pick6/