We made it to the last week of the Run For the Roses Derby Prep Challenge 2022. Only one last Derby Prep race on the ticket today, the Lexington Stakes. I think Charismatic was the last horse to win the Lexington and the Kentucky Derby in 1999. We will also head out to Woodbine, Keeneland, and Oaklawn Park for Graded Stakes races to finish out the day. Everyone can still win by hitting a long shot today, so be clever and cover yourself. Good luck everyone.

Race 1: Plenty of Grace Stakes

• Technical Analysis – High speed figs, consistently high, winner of 2 of last 3 and 4 of last 6, winner at distance, high percentage trainer, working out well, dropping distance.
• Alms – Winner at distance, but hasn’t won a race since February 2020. High percentage jockey, strong recent workouts, not coming off a layoff.
• Plum Ali – Won last race at Aqueduct, winner at distance, working out well, seems to alternate good trips.

Race 2: Long Branch Stakes

• Our Secret Agent – Fast horse dropping in class and distance, woodbine experience, finished off the board one time in 15 starts, working well.
• Dreaming of Dew – Winner last race at Woodbine, multiple Woodbine wins, good speed, dropping distance, both wins have been when she goes tot he front, working out bullets, lots to like.
• Nikee Kan – Distance specialist, but hasn’t seen the results, moving up in class, ran 2nd last two races.

Race 3: Giant’s Causeway Stakes

• Elle Z – Winner last 3 races, high speed figs, distance specialist 13 6-3-0, has beaten others in this field, working bullets, will go to the front.
• Change of Control – High speed figs, plenty of experience and wins at distance, has lost twice to Elle Z though, wins at Keeneland.
• Campanelle – High percentage jockey/trainer, winner of 2/3 at distance, hasn’t won at Keeneland, lost to Change Control last race.
• Just Missed – Goin’ Good – Second last race to Elle Z, high speed figs, high percentage jockey/trainer, will go to the front, distance specialist.

Race 4: Lexington Stakes (G3)

• Tawny Point – Ran second last race, good speed figs, high percentage trainer, may take advantage of weaker field – last 2 races against Tiz the Bomb and Epicenter.
• Major General – Was looking good before stumbled start at the Tampa Bay Derby, high percentage jockey/trainer, has won at distance, may get a good price on a horse we haven’t really seen his full potential yet.
• In Due Time – Second in the Fountain of Youth, good speed, has raced at distance, hit the board in all 4 starts.

Race 5: Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1)

• Shantisara – Winner of last 3, dropping distance, high percentage jockey, working bullets, high speed figs, winner at Keeneland, lots to like.
• Regal Glory – Winner of last 2 and 3 of last 4, winner of 2/2 at distance, high speed figs, working bullets, should be a great race that pays no money.
• Toss up between Lady Speightspeare and Navratilova for 3rd. I liked Navratilova in the Honey Fox, working bullets, winner at Keeneland, experience at distance. Lady Speightspeare has better win percentage, more experience at distance, dropping distance. Really should be a 2 horse race though.

Race 6: Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3)

• Jackie’s Warrior – Looks to rebound after very poor Breeders Cup Sprint, winner of 3 before that, high speed figs, working bullets, high percentage jockey, winner at distance.
• Bob’s Edge – High speed figs, winner of last 2, plenty of experience and wins at distance, winner at Oaklawn, high percentage trainer, working out well.
• Mojo Man – Comes off a win, lots of experience at distance and wins at Oaklawn, good workouts, good jockey, good trainer, good may not be good enough against Jackie’s Warrior and Bob’s Edge.

There you have it, some small fields, some large fields, can you pick the winners? Who will win the segment? It is anyone’s game.

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